- Title
- Green economy breakthroughs: assessing policies on rooftop solar PV uptake, identifying decarbonisation pathways and job opportunities for NSW’s energy system by 2050
- Creator
- Murugesan, Mythili
- Relation
- University of Newcastle Research Higher Degree Thesis
- Resource Type
- thesis
- Date
- 2022
- Description
- Research Doctorate - Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
- Description
- The science is clear that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are directly responsible for global climate change. Since the industrial revolution (1750s), the atmospheric greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4)) concentrations have increased by 48%, causing climate change. The primary source of greenhouse gas is generating and using energy - burning coal, gas, and oil. To mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, countries worldwide committed to limiting the global temperature to well below 2 oC and ideally 1.5 oC by mid-century under the Paris Agreement. To limit global warming to 1.5 oC requires transitions in the use and operation of land, transport, industry, energy, buildings, and cities. In order to reach ‘net zero’ by 2050, the net CO2 emissions need to reduce by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030. To achieve this ambitious global target, governments are legislating policies and clean energy mechanisms to accelerate the uptake of renewable energy technologies and deliver the transition to a clean and green economy. However, achieving the international climate target of net-zero emissions by 2050 will likely require substantial structural changes in Australia and its states and territories' energy systems. All states and territories in Australia have declared the intention to accelerate the uptake of renewable energy by adopting renewable energy targets to achieve the zero-emissions goal by 2050. For example, the State of New South Wales (NSW) government is committed to increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the state’s electricity generation mix. To support this state-level effort, this research is aimed to provide insights and information on the effectiveness of previous and current policies on the uptake of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems, how changes in electricity generation technology or policy settings would influence variable energy resources (electricity generation from solar and wind technologies) in the energy sector and how it will impact green jobs for the state of NSW. This study contributes to the literature by assessing the scale of impact of policies on renewable electricity generation at the national and sub-national levels, with modelling focusing on the latter. This thesis consists of three empirical modelling studies. The first empirical study investigates the effectiveness of energy policies on the uptake of residential rooftop solar PV technologies for the Hunter Region, NSW. Policies for renewable energy targets aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increase the uptake of renewable energy production and consumption. Knowing the effectiveness of policy-based instruments is essential for designing and implementing such schemes in the short- and long-term. Since 2001, the Renewable Energy Target (RET) policy has provided incentives to stimulate investment in renewable energy generation by increasing the number of installations of small-scale renewable energy systems and boosting the uptake of renewable energy for electricity generation in Australia. In January 2011, the RET was divided into two parts - the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme (SRES) and the Large-scale Renewable Energy Target (LRET). This study focuses on the uptake of rooftop solar PV systems under the SRES throughout the Hunter region in New South Wales, Australia. The period of this analysis of installed capacity covers 2001 to 2018, making it possible to document the effects of the scheme from its early phase nearly to the present. The study characterises the trends and effectiveness of policy instruments for supporting the uptake of rooftop solar PV technology by employing multiple regression analysis. The evidence from this study shows that the policies have had mixed results. However, policies such as Feed-in Tariff (FiT), solar credits, and small-scale technology certificates (STCs) have a statistically significant relationship to the scale of rooftop solar PV technology deployment in the Hunter region. The second empirical study examines deep decarbonisation pathways for the State of NSW to allow the state to reach the net-zero emissions goal by mid-century, which are part of global mitigation efforts to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 oC. The term “decarbonisation” and “deep decarbonisation” refers to the gradual reducion and elimination of carbon-emitting fuels and favouring more sustainable alternatives. This study adopted an Australian implementation of TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System) energy system modelling framework (IEA-ETSAP) to explore minimum-cost solutions for achieving the GHG emissions reduction target for the state of NSW. Using this framework, the study investigated possible decarbonisation pathways and available technology options to reach the target from the base year of 2018. The study includes a baseline scenario (business-as-usual) and a scenario implementing NSW’s ambitious target of net-zero emissions (deep decarbonisation) with available and viable, well-developed technologies. The findings show that the NSW energy system can continue its shift from fossil fuels to renewables like solar, wind, and hydro, and it could phase out coal- and gas-fired electricity generation by 2050. The deployment of zero-emissions technologies with the support of policy is shown to be crucial to achieving deep decarbonisation of the NSW economy by 2050. This study also reveals that the electricity sector is dominant in the least-cost pathway to achieve the needed emissions reduction up to 2030, while transport, buildings, and industry sectors can – on this least-cost pathway - decarbonise later in the projection period (2030-2050). The third empirical study measures the job impacts on a decarbonised NSW economy. In 2016, the NSW state government voiced a commitment to reducing carbon emissions by achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 to contribute its fair share to combat climate change in line with the Paris Agreement. The uptake of renewable energy generation and storage technologies is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, which can deliver significant opportunities for economic growth by creating jobs across the energy sector. This study focuses on understanding the job implications of achieving the NSW government’s aspirational target of net-zero emissions by 2050. The Aus-TIMES energy system model and employment factor approach are used to gauge the state of NSW job opportunities. This study estimated that around 1.2 million jobs could be created statewide in the deep decarbonisation scenario associated with 1.5 oC of warming. That is 40% higher than the number of jobs created under the baseline scenario by 2050, where the baseline scenario involved representing the current policy trajectory – without any additional policy measures to reduce carbon emissions. This study also demonstrates that new investment in renewable energy resources will create significant numbers of jobs over the coming decades, particularly in the North West NSW, New England, and Central-West Orana renewable energy zones. Thus, the econometric analysis and modelling undertaken in this thesis can be seen to add to the literature for measuring the progress towards a green economy by assessing the effectiveness of policies and policy instruments on the deployment of rooftop solar PV systems and other emissions reduction pathways. This thesis also contributes to policy formulation by quantifying the number of jobs gained while achieving the NSW government’s ambitious target of net-zero emissions by 2050. To do this, this study employed the Aus-TIMES model by populating the details of electricity generation technologies and future energy demand activities of end-use sectors to inform future policy decision-making about carbon abatement solutions and creation of job opportunities.
- Subject
- green economy; energy policy; net zero emissions target; deep decarbonisation; jobs
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1505003
- Identifier
- uon:55608
- Rights
- Copyright 2022 Mythili Murugesan
- Language
- eng
- Full Text
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