- Title
- Validity of three risk prediction models for dementia or cognitive impairment in Australia
- Creator
- Geethadevi, Gopisankar M.; Peel, Roseanne; Bell, J. Simon; Cross, Amanda J.; Hancock, Stephen; Ilomaki, Jenni; Tang, Titus; Attia, John; George, Johnson
- Relation
- NHMRC.1029815 http://purl.org/au-research/grants/nhmrc/1029815
- Relation
- Age and Ageing Vol. 51, Issue 12, no. afac307
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afac307
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2022
- Description
- Background: no studies have compared the predictive validity of different dementia risk prediction models in Australia. Objectives: (i) to investigate the predictive validity of the Australian National University-Alzheimer's Disease Risk Index (ANU-ADRI), LIfestyle for BRAin Health (LIBRA) Index and cardiovascular risk factors, ageing and dementia study (CAIDE) models for predicting probable dementia/cognitive impairment in an Australian cohort. (ii) To develop and assess the predictive validity of a new hybrid model combining variables from the three models. Methods: the Hunter Community Study (HCS) included 3,306 adults aged 55-85 years with a median follow-up of 7.1 years. Probable dementia/cognitive impairment was defined using Admitted Patient Data Collection, dispensing of cholinesterase inhibitors or memantine, or a cognitive test. Model validity was assessed by calibration and discrimination. A hybrid model was developed using deep neural network analysis, a machine learning method. Results: 120 (3.6%) participants developed probable dementia/cognitive impairment. Mean calibration by ANU-ADRI, LIBRA, CAIDE and the hybrid model was 19, 0.5, 4.7 and 3.4%, respectively. The discrimination of the models was 0.65 (95% CI 0.60-0.70), 0.65 (95% CI 0.60-0.71), 0.54 (95% CI 0.49-0.58) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.78-0.83), respectively. Conclusion: ANU-ADRI and LIBRA were better dementia prediction tools than CAIDE for identification of high-risk individuals in this cohort. ANU-ADRI overestimated and LIBRA underestimated the risk. The new hybrid model had a higher predictive performance than the other models but it needs to be validated independently in longitudinal studies.
- Subject
- dementia risk; cognitive impairment; prognostic models; risk assessment; risk prediction; older people
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1490755
- Identifier
- uon:52975
- Identifier
- ISSN:0002-0729
- Rights
- x
- Language
- eng
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