- Title
- A new approach for location-specific seasonal outlooks of typhoon and super typhoon frequency across the Western North Pacific region
- Creator
- Magee, Andrew D.; Kiem, Anthony S.; Chan, Johnny C. L.
- Relation
- Scientific Reports Vol. 11, no. 19439
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-98329-6
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2021
- Description
- With an average of 26 tropical cyclones (TCs) per year, the western North Pacific (WNP) is the most active TC basin in the world. Considerable exposure lies in the coastal regions of the WNP, which extends from Japan in the north to the Philippines in the south, amplifying TC related impacts, including loss of life and damage to property, infrastructure and environment. This study presents a new location-specific typhoon (TY) and super typhoon (STY) outlook for the WNP basin and subregions, including China, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Using multivariate Poisson regression and considering up to five modes of ocean-atmospheric variability and teleconnection patterns that influence WNP TC behaviour, thousands of possible predictor model combinations are compared using an automated variable selection procedure. For each location, skillful TY and STY outlooks are generated up to 6 months before the start of the typhoon season, with rolling monthly updates enabling refinement of predicted TY and STY frequency. This unparalleled lead time allows end-users to make more informed decisions before and during the typhoon season.
- Subject
- climate sciences; natural hazards; tropical cyclone; typhoon; SDG 17; Sustainable Development Goals
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1480934
- Identifier
- uon:50593
- Identifier
- ISSN:2045-2322
- Rights
- This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Language
- eng
- Full Text
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