- Title
- Variability of southwest Pacific tropical cyclone track geometry over the last 70 years
- Creator
- Sharma, Krishneel K.; Magee, Andrew D.; Verdon-Kidd Danielle. C.
- Relation
- International Journal of Climatology Vol. 41, Issue 1, p. 529-546
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6636
- Publisher
- John Wiley & Sons
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2020
- Description
- Variability in tropical cyclone (TC) track morphology, as it evolves post genesis, presents continued challenges in accurately forecasting TC movement. Therefore, an improved understanding of TC track climatology is essential, given that TCs are one of the most critical natural hazards in the southwest Pacific (SWP) region. We examine the historical variability of TC tracks within the SWP over the last 70 years (1948–2017) using 6-hourly track data obtained from the South Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) database. A probabilistic clustering technique is applied to separate TC tracks into distinct groups in order to assess the primary cyclone trajectories for the region and its relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). TC tracks are also classified into four sinuosity categories: straight, recurving, sinuous and highly sinuous; and their spatial and temporal characteristics subsequently analysed. The results of the cluster analysis identified five optimal groups of TC tracks, four of which exhibited southeast propagation, except for the southwest moving tracks in Cluster 5. Temporally, significant trends were observed over the last seven decades, with Clusters 1, 3 and 4 becoming less frequent with a substantial increase in the occurrence of Cluster 2 tracks (representing TCs east of dateline), a geometry favoured by El Niño conditions. Further, the sinuosity analysis revealed continued dominance of straight TCs within the eastern SWP with a tendency of encountering TCs of other morphology types. Conversely, the western SWP region is typically exposed to highly sinuous tracks. We also observed a significant decrease (increase) in TCs with straight and quasi-straight (highly sinuous) tracks, particularly during the last decade. These findings suggest that combined cluster analysis and TC track sinuosity analysis is an important tool in generalising the TC track regimes, refining predicted trajectories and understanding impacts on SWP island nations.
- Subject
- cluster analysis; ENSO; sinuosity; southwest Pacific; SPEAeTC; tropical cyclone tracks
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1445911
- Identifier
- uon:42711
- Identifier
- ISSN:0899-8418
- Rights
- This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Sharma, Krishneel K.; Magee, Andrew D.; Verdon-Kidd D. C. "Variability of southwest Pacific tropical cyclone track geometry over the last 70 years". International Journal of Climatology Vol. 41, Issue 1, p. 529-546 (2020), which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.6636. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
- Language
- eng
- Full Text
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