- Title
- A new island-scale tropical cyclone outlook for southwest Pacific nations and territories
- Creator
- Magee, Andrew D.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Kiem, Anthony S.; Colyvas, Kim
- Relation
- Scientific Reports Vol. 10, Issue 1, no. 11286
- Publisher Link
- http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67646-7
- Publisher
- Nature Publishing Group
- Resource Type
- journal article
- Date
- 2020
- Description
- The southwest Pacifc (SWP) region is vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) related impacts which adversely affect people, infrastructure and economies across several nations and territories. Skilful TC outlooks are needed for this region, but the erratic nature of SWP TCs and the complex ocean-atmosphere interactions that infuence TC behaviour on seasonal timescales presents significant challenges. Here, we present a new TC outlook tool for the SWP using multivariate Poisson regression with indices of multiple climate modes. This approach provides skilful, island-scale TC count outlooks from July (four months ahead of the official TC season start in November). Monthly island-scale TC frequency outlooks are generated between July and December, enabling continuous refinement of predicted TC counts before and during a TC season. Use of this approach in conjunction with other seasonal climate guidance (including dynamical models) has implications for preparations ahead of severe weather events, resilience and risk reduction.
- Subject
- atmospheric science; climate sciences; natural hazards; tropical cyclone
- Identifier
- http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1424990
- Identifier
- uon:38182
- Identifier
- ISSN:2045-2322
- Rights
- © The Author(s) 2020. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
- Language
- eng
- Full Text
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