Probabilistic risk assessment for improvised explosive device attacks that cause significant building damage

Grant, Matthew; Stewart, Mark G.

Title: Probabilistic risk assessment for improvised explosive device attacks that cause significant building damage
Creator: Grant, Matthew; Stewart, Mark G.
Relation: ARC
Relation: Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities Vol. 29, Issue 5
Publisher Link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000694
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Resource Type: journal article
Date: 2015
Description: Most vulnerability assessments assume that an improvised explosive device (IED) will reach maximum TNT equivalency, and that the IED will successfully detonate. These assumptions will tend to overestimate actual blast-load effects. The paper develops an IED probabilistic risk-assessment model using a systems model for IED attacks based on the reliability of IEDs and by characterizing the human aspects of an IED attack's operational effectiveness from existing databases of terrorist incidents. The analysis includes estimates of the probability of threat, hazard, and loss for large commercial buildings in the United States. It was found that annual fatality risk for building occupants is similar to acceptable risk criteria. This suggests that strengthening buildings against progressive collapse may not be warranted unless there is a specific threat against a building.
Subject: probabilistic risk assessment; improvised explosive device; vulnerability assessments; blast-load effects
Identifier: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/1330347
Identifier: uon:26368
Identifier: ISSN:0887-3828
Language: eng
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