Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/919620
- Challenges of a non-stationary climate in drought risk assessment
Verdon-Kidd, D. C.;
Kiem, A. S.
- The University of Newcastle. Faculty of Science & Information Technology, School of Environmental and Life Sciences
- Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. However, in many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades. There is also serious concern about how anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate drought risk in the future. In this paper, the frequency and severity of droughts are analysed during a range of ‘climate states’ (e.g. different phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation etc) to demonstrate that drought risk varies markedly over inter-annual through to multidecadal timescales. Importantly, by accounting for climate variability and change on multi-time scales (e.g. inter-decadal, multi-decadal, and the palaeo-scale) it is demonstrated that the risk of failure of current drought management practices may be better assessed and more robust climate adaptation responses developed.
- 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (H2009). H2009: Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (Newcastle, N.S.W. 30 November - 3 December, 2009) p. 1306-1317
- Engineers Australia / Causal Productions
- Resource Type
- conference paper