Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/919620

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Title
Challenges of a non-stationary climate in drought risk assessment
Author/Creator
Verdon-Kidd, D. C.;  Kiem, A. S.
Institution
The University of Newcastle. Faculty of Science & Information Technology, School of Environmental and Life Sciences
Description
Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. However, in many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades. There is also serious concern about how anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate drought risk in the future. In this paper, the frequency and severity of droughts are analysed during a range of ‘climate states’ (e.g. different phases of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation etc) to demonstrate that drought risk varies markedly over inter-annual through to multidecadal timescales. Importantly, by accounting for climate variability and change on multi-time scales (e.g. inter-decadal, multi-decadal, and the palaeo-scale) it is demonstrated that the risk of failure of current drought management practices may be better assessed and more robust climate adaptation responses developed.
Relation
32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (H2009). H2009: Proceedings of H2009, the 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium (Newcastle, N.S.W. 30 November - 3 December, 2009) p. 1306-1317
Relation
http://www.engineersaustralia.org.au
Date
2009
Publisher
Engineers Australia / Causal Productions
Keyword(s)
water management;  climate variability;  rainfall;  evaporation;  drought risk
Resource Type
conference paper
Identifier
http://hdl.handle.net/1959.13/919620
Identifier
ISBN:97808258259461
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Subject
"Challenges of a non-stationary climate in drought risk assessment"
 
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